June 10, 1996

The Dayton Accords: A Status Report

In This Article
Overview | Division of Land | War Criminals | Refugees | The Calendar

More on the Accords
Map: Peacekeeping Forces | Map: Ethnic Groups

By STEVEN ERLANGER
Special to The New York Times on the Web
Overview

On Nov. 21, 1995, after 21 days of intensive negotiations at an anything-but-luxurious American Air Force base in Dayton, Ohio, the three Bosnian leaders initialed a peace agreement and 11 annexes, known as the Dayton accords, to try to bring an end to nearly four years of terror and killing in the former Yugoslavia. About 250,000 people died and another 2.7 million were turned into refugees.

The accords went into effect when the leaders -- Alijia Izetbegovic of Bosnia, Franjo Tudjman of Croatia and Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia -- formally signed the pact in Paris on Dec. 14. NATO troops known as the Implementation Force, or IFOR, took over from United Nations troops in Bosnia on Dec. 20, known as "D-day," starting the clock on a series of deadlines running for a year and bringing some 60,000 NATO troops, nearly 20,000 of them American, to keep the peace in Bosnia.

Already, under pressure from civilian authorities trying against great difficulties construct a single, multiethnic state in Bosnia, NATO has agreed to keep all those troops in Bosnia through Dec. 14, through elections that are supposed to take place by Sept. 14.

American officials say it is almost sure that a new, smaller force of NATO troops, including some Americans, will be deployed after Dec. 14 with a new mandate, to insure that Bosnia does not return to open warfare.

But big doubts remain that Bosnia will be reintegrated; that substantial numbers of refugees will be able to return to their homes; that the elections will be sufficiently free and fair despite American pressure to hold them on time; that the Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian nationalist parties that prosecuted the war will lose elections; or that more than a few, low-ranking officials will be turned over to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

Here is a look at the major points and deadlines in the Dayton accords, and where they stand today.

The Division of Land

The Bosnian Serbs received 49 percent of the original Bosnia-Herzogovina, while a Federation of the Bosnian Muslims and Bosnian Croats received 51 percent. The division -- and the American-forced creation of the Federation -- allowed contiguous areas, without divisions, as well as access to the sea for both entities.

Territorial issues nearly derailed the talks, but the Bosnian Muslims finally gained control of a corridor five miles (eight kilometers) wide, known as the Posavina corridor, to link Sarajevo and Gorazde, while Bosnian Serbs kept Zepa and Srebrenica. Rebel Serbs in Croatia agreed to return the region of Eastern Slavonia to the Croatian Government.

The status of Brcko, a town on the northern edge of the Posavina corridor that is traditionally Muslim but Serb-occupied, was not settled at Dayton but sent to negotiations, and then if necessary, to arbitration, which is supposed to be finished by Dec. 14. The Americans are pressing to get the matter resolved sooner. Both Serbs and Muslims claim the town.

The pact also establishes Sarajevo as a united city under the control of the new central Government, requiring Bosnian Serbs to give up control of neighborhoods and suburbs from which Serb forces had bombarded the city. That transfer of control produced ugly scenes. (See photo essay.)

War Criminals

People indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, sitting in The Hague, cannot run in elections scheduled to be held between June 14 and Sept. 14 and thus cannot hold office afterward. The three Bosnian Governments pledged to cooperate with the tribunal, but are not explicitly required to arrest indicted people. Fewer than 60 people have been indicted so far, the majority of them Serbs.

Only one person, a young Croat, Drazen Erdemovic, 24, has been convicted after a tearful confession of massacring Muslims in Srebrenica in July 1995. One Bosnian Serb, Gen. Djordje Djukic, fatally ill with cancer, finally turned himself in under international pressure but died a few weeks later.

The most prominent of those indicted for war crimes, the Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and the military commander Ratko Mladic, remain at large and move relatively freely through the Bosnian Serb areas. NATO forces have been reluctant to move to arrest them, in part because they are surrounded by bodyguards, but mostly because they fear the Serbs will take hostages among the Western aid and political workers there. NATO's reluctance has been widely criticized.

Dr. Karadzic has openly challenged the implementation of the accords, and the Americans and Europeans have stepped up pressure on Mr. Milosevic to get Dr. Karadzic out of a position to influence events -- in particular, the coming elections. But there is little evidence that Dr. Karadzic does not remain in control of many matters, though now working through proxies.

Refugees

From D-day plus 1, Bosnia's two million refugees and displaced people have the legal right to reclaim their homes or receive compensation. They have the right to vote in the elections either from their previous homes or their new ones. But in fact freedom of movement has been restricted by ethnic hatreds, and even buses run by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, designed to protect refugees visiting their old homes, have been stoned and many turned back.

In a typical example, Bosnian Muslims are still objecting to the idea of letting Serbs vote in their old homes, fearing that "refugees" will outvote them and return neighborhoods to absent Serb control. Hundreds of thousands of refugees, mostly Muslim, are still in nearby countries like Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Sweden, and are supposed to be able to vote by absentee ballot.

The Calendar

At D plus 7, Dec. 27, the warring parties pulled back to a zone of separation in Sarajevo.

By D plus 30, Jan. 19, the zone of separation in Bosnia itself was transformed into the interentity boundary, and the zone was to be cleared of mines and hazards.

IFOR took over security in territory to be transferred from one side to another. Parties were supposed to disarm and disband all armed civilian groups except the authorized police, a process that is still not complete.

Prisoners were to be released, but that was not done on time, turning into delayed prisoner exchanges. Months later, the last prisoners were said to be released, even those not on approved lists.

All foreign forces were supposed to have been withdrawn, but that hasn't yet happened completely, with perhaps 100 Iranians still in Bosnia, though supposedly now married to Bosnian Muslims or working for the Embassy. The Americans insist they cannot start training and equipping the Bosnian Muslim army until all foreign forces are gone.

By D plus 45, Feb. 3, forces of the side withdrawing from territory under the agreement had to vacate territory to be turned over to another side.

By March 14, the general arms embargo ended on all sides, except for the sale and purchase of heavy weapons, which stays in place until June 12.

By D plus 90, March 19, forces of the side gaining or regaining territory could move in, with local order supposedly guaranteed by local police and a force of international police monitors. But there were too few of them, and in Sarajevo suburbs handed over to the Muslims, there was violence, beatings and burnings as Serb residents, some of whom had moved in after the area was captured, were forced to flee their homes. Their exodus was further pressed by Dr. Karadzic and the Bosnian Serb leaders in Pale, who oppose the accord and want Serbian ethnic partition. Finally IFOR stepped in after days of carnage and harsh international criticism.

By D plus 120, April 18, parties were required to withdraw all heavy weapons and forces to cantonment or barracks areas and demobilize all other forces as a confidence-building measure. IFOR is supposed to supervise this move, not necessarily enforce it. By D plus 180, June 18, this grace period will end and IFOR will enforce cantonment.

By June 11, the parties are supposed to conclude their agreements on arms levels and reductions, or a ratio of Serbia 5, Croatia 2 and Bosnia 2 will apply. American officials are trying to get a deal initialed sooner.

In Florence on June 14, six months after the accords went into effect, there is a meeting to judge compliance with them attended by all parties and countries concerned.

From June 14 to Sept. 14, from six to nine months after the agreement went into force, there are supposed to be elections under a new constitution for a new parliament and group presidency of a loosely unified, multiethnic Bosnia with two big federal elements, the Bosnian Serbs and the Bosnian Muslim-Bosnian Croat Federation, each with its own president and legislature.

Indicted war criminals are banned from running in the elections, but there is nothing in Dayton requiring that they be removed from their previous office beforehand. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is supposed to certify that conditions exist for free and fair elections, including freedom of movement and access to a free press, and then to organize the elections themselves. The organization considers its deadline July 15, to allow two months of campaigning, but Washington is pressing for a decision by the end of June, and possibly by the Florence meeting.

A fierce debate is going on whether the organization should certify elections by a date certain, as the American Government insists, in order to move on with the accords and allow no slippage. Some critics say the elections will be a fraud with Dr. Karadzic still wielding influence; others say Washington just wants for political reasons to have no delay before November's presidential election, so voters think American troops will be gone on time, on Dec. 14, one year after the agreement went into force and the end of IFOR's mandate.